WCSE

Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Its Application in Complex Integrated Task Risk Assessment

Abstract—In view of the characteristics of complex integration tasks such as launch tasks, such as complex processes, many systems involved, and frequent human-computer interaction, the probabilistic risk evaluation (PRA) method is introduced to realize the quantitative risk assessment of complex integration tasks. In this paper, the development and application status of PRA method are analyzed, and key technologies such as comprehensive modeling analysis of human factors reliability based on human error rate prediction (THERP) and human cognitive reliability (HCR) models, importance ranking, and uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation are studied. Taking the propellant leakage in the launch tasks as an example, the PRA method is applied to quantitatively evaluate the risk of this scenario, and the results show that the PRA method has good applicability in the risk assessment of complex integration tasks, and can provide decision-making support for institutional risk management and control of complex integration tasks.

Index Terms—probabilistic risk assessment; complex integration task; human reliability

Qi Yang, Lingjie Zhang, Hongqi Yang, Yujie Liu, Ning Hu, Jieyi Zhang
China Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing Research Institute, CHINA
Key Laboratory of Industrial Equipment Quality Big Data, MIIT, CHINA

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Cite: Qi Yang, Lingjie Zhang, Hongqi Yang, Yujie Liu, Ning Hu, Jieyi Zhang, "Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Its Application in Complex Integrated Task Risk Assessment" Proceedings of 2023 the 13th International Workshop on Computer Science and Engineering (WCSE 2023), pp. 375-383, June 16-18, 2023.